The Forthcoming Leisure Age

While technologists point to the advances in automation that will displace many jobs that humans perform, economists are scratching their heads and are not looking beyond the near future. Sociologists haven't a clue other than forecasting an ominous future. Educators are noting that we are moving towards an unstructured world and our current education system is tailored to a factory oriented assembly line. Technologists, economists, sociologists and educators focus on their own silos of expertise and don't look at the complete picture. Opinions are expressed in the context of the silos of each opinion maker. Politicians are concerned about getting elected, responding to the immediate needs of their constituents and responding to crisis. There needs to be some thought given to what children born today will encounter when they reach middle age and in their twilight years. There are competing predictions. However there is no analysis that ties it all together in a socioeconomic and political context.

The companion article, “The Rise of Automation” provides references to information that covers the State of the Art in the beginning of the 21^st Century and what experts see coming.

This article takes a comprehensive view of the developments and forces at play in looking at what the future could well turn out.

In the beginning of the 22nd Century:

The year 2100 has ushered a new era in the US. Automation has penetrated every aspect of American life. Cars are self driven. So are trains, buses and planes. Robots do the cooking and cleaning. Everything conceivable that required human effort has been automated. Robots even look after children and the invalid. The US continues to attract the best and the brightest of the world. Innovation has taken center stage. Only the most sophisticated, delicate and intricate tasks need to be performed by humans. That too is a rarity. It is an era of plenty. Energy is plentiful; mostly safe renewable solar, wind and nuclear energy. Even defense is highly automated, consisting of missiles, jet fighters that fly by themselves, drones and micro-drones. These micro-drones can seek and incapacitate an individual by stinging them with a powerful sedative or kill them with a lethal injection. Hunger and poverty have been banished. There is no shortage of essential goods and creature comforts. Technological breakthroughs in energy, automation in manufacturing, construction, farming etc. have brought the cost of goods and services down significantly and it has become economical and viable to just give everyone their basic necessities along with robots to serve them. Everyone is given Monthly Basic Credits (MBCs) – Housing Credits, Food Credits and Discretionary Credits. Education and Healthcare are free. People can earn more Credits in a variety of ways, reminiscent of jobs as defined in the 21st Century, to afford more. Inflation is virtually non-existent since everything is indexed to the Credits. A commodity costs the same number of Credits regardless. Money has ceased to be important and the notion of banking and investing has been disbanded which precipitated the demise of Wall Street. Wall Street that held sway until the mid 21st Century exists only in name. There is peace and happiness. It took significant changes and cataclysmic shifts to get to this situation. Even with a few detractors, the majority agree that the solution achieved is as close to Utopia as one can get.

The path to the Age of Leisure:

In the early 21st Century, the US consisted of:

• Makers, who added “real” value to the economy
• Takers, who lived of entitlements and subsidies

With the advent of automation, more and more people were forced out of work. The Taker population comprised of not only habitual Takers, but others forced into this predicament due to the unavailability of jobs or their inability to function as a Maker in the highly specialized environment. As more and more automation set in, even the service economy was affected and service jobs like gardening, burger flipping etc. got automated. This created a major rift between the Haves and the Have Nots. The country had a dwindling set of Makers, Servers (Service Providers) and an expanding population of Takers.

Food Stamps to the Rescue:

To counter the trend of increasing poverty, the Food Stamp Program and Unemployment Benefits were expanded. Providing and extending these entitlements were heavily fought over by fiscal conservatives. They had a point. Money spent on entitlements did nothing to solve the problem. Government and the poor had one thing in common. Both lived beyond their means and spent more than they had. Furthermore, money poured at the bottom and near bottom of the pyramid bubbled up to the top and the income gap widened. The government could not cope with rising unemployment. The consumer market collapsed and this set a downward spiral in the price of produce and manufactured goods. Massive deflation set in. The country got thrown into deep depression. The entire Farm to Fork chain had been automated and the bottom fell out in the agriculture economy. With falling prices, farmers defaulted on their loans and instead of giving farmers subsidies, the Thinkers in government suggested that the government take over farms. With the ever expanding Food Stamp program, it made eminent sense for the government to own agriculture. Many farmers opted out and surrendered to the government. With government owning a significant portion of food production, a Food Stamp Economy emerged, wherein Food Stamps were involved in most transactions pertaining to produce and processed food. The monetary relief on the government was significant. The Food Stamp program became a success. Hunger and malnutrition was eliminated. Farmers benefited too, many migrated to cities and became Takers. The ones that stayed back approached farming as a hobby. Many city dwellers moved to rural America and chose the simple rural life of being close to nature and mother earth. The back to nature form of living gained popularity. But the situation in cities deteriorated. Homelessness was on the rise to unprecedented levels. The country was driven to the brink of disaster by uncontrollable law and order. Prisons were over flowing and the government started building more prisons to accommodate the increasing population of criminals.

Enter Housing Credits:

While the situation got worse; on the verge of reaching a tipping point of anarchy, the Thinkers in government citing the success of the Food Stamp program recommended applying this principle to Housing and just give minimum housing to Takers. The rationale was instead of building more prisons, why not build housing. Food was already taken care of and housing will take care of giving people a roof over their heads. And so along with Food Stamps, the government started issuing Housing Credits. This brought about significant relief to the situation and more Monetary relief.

The Collapse of Commodity Prices:

Extensive recycling and reuse resulted in judicious use of non-renewable resources. This extended the availability of non-renewable resources for the 22nd Century and beyond. The drop in demand cratered the prices of raw material. Mining, refining, transportation, manufacturing, delivering was automated with minimal human intervention. Technological breakthroughs in energy, automation in manufacturing, construction, etc. brought the cost of goods and services down even further. With the collapse of prices and subsequent defaults, the Thinkers in the government recommended take over of mines and oil fields. Fossil fuels were yesterday’s energy source and demand for it evaporated. With that the debate on climate change was put to bed. The cost of goods dropped to such an insignificant level that it became economical and viable to just give the Takers the essentials that they needed along with robots to serve them as well to enjoy a comfortable Quality of Life of Leisure, since energy was cheap and everything was automated.

The New US:

The US became completely self sufficient. Trading with other countries decreased to a negligible level. The world was forced to survive without relying on the US economy. Europe and the BRICS countries picked up the slack. In the past the US was accused of being a war monger, involved in an expansionist foreign policy. The rhetoric shifted and the rest of the world began accusing the US of being an isolationist. China that once copied US innovations indiscriminately started crying fowl since Chinese innovations were being replicated in the US. The Dollar continued to be an International Currency, but most of the Dollars circulated overseas since the US found little use for it. A Dollar to US Credit exchange emerged. This was utilized by tourists visiting the US, by US citizens wishing to travel abroad and for existing trade to acquire Rare Earths and the like. The entire Product Cycle from Supply Chain, Manufacturing and Distribution being automated required very little human intervention. The new order was not Capitalism, Socialism or Communism. Scholars wrestled with what to call it. Branding this socioeconomic order as an “ism” was rejected. That debate still goes on.

The Passage of Fundamental Rights:

The Thinkers in government then went about proposing a set of Fundamental Rights (re-branded entitlements) that were passed by Congress. Basic food and housing were institutionalized as the Right to Food and Right to Housing. To this was added Right to Education; which was essentially free and dispensed through Massive Open On-line Courses (MOOCs), and the Right to Health Care; which was also highly automated and given free. The much fought over and maligned Affordable Care Act that came into existence in 2014 was re-branded as Right to Health and made Universal.

Cradle to Grave Security:

With cradle to grave support provided for by the government, there was no need for 20^th Century entitlement programs - Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Disability, Welfare were all eliminated. With the basic set of Rights established, all forms of Subsidies and Entitlements were eliminated. Everyone was entitled to these Rights and in order to avail of these Rights a set of Responsibilities were established to maintain social balance and harmony. This provided more Monetary relief to the government. A new category of people emerged; Servers, who served Makers; Servers who served affluent Makers, Makers who preferred to be served by humans rather than robots.

Credits Replace Currency:

In implementing these fundamental rights the government established a new currency of exchange called Credits. Since Food Stamps and Housing Credits were already in place, all of this were rolled into a Basic Credit System of Food Credits, Housing Credits, and Discretionary Credits. These were commonly called FC, HC and DC. Discretionary Credits could be applied to anything. Education and Healthcare did not require any Credits. Takers were able to live within the Basic Credits they were given. The income inequality that widened in first part of the 21st Century vanished. Makers earned more Credits by virtue of their occupation and contribution to society, much like the 21st Century, which allowed them to live a more “affluent” life style. Makers had choice regarding housing. They could upgrade their housing by applying Discretionary Credits or chose to live a simple lifestyle on their entitled Housing Credits. They could use their Discretionary Credits (entitled and earned) for whatever they chose. Inheritance rights were preserved. People, who inherited property, turned in their unused Housing Credits. The Commercial and Rental Real Estate market collapsed with dwindling demand. It became the property of the government by default. A small demand for Servers emerged created by Makers who wished to be served by Humans. The oldest profession continued to exist. Servers got paid for services provided.

A Focus on Quality of Life:

To enhance the Quality of Life, the Thinkers in government, promoted the idea of Entertainment Centers called Forever Lands, much like Las Vegas and Disney Land in each and every City and Town. People could utilize their Discretionary Credits to access the recreational facilities provided. Gambling was curtailed, in that when a person exhausted their Discretionary Credits, they had to quit and wait till they got their next allotment or earned more DCs. Many activities were free; others were purchased with Discretionary Credits. Many tournaments, games enabled people to earn Discretionary Credits that they could use for special privileges like golfing, horse back riding, fishing etc. There were many avenues like volunteering, taking courses etc. to earn DCs and that could be used to acquire things to satisfy human vanity, such as human made items or works of art. While Forever Lands were accessible to everyone, exclusive Country Clubs were set up as well that required significant DCs to access. These were the places frequented by affluent Makers. What resulted was a true meritocracy wherein competence and creating value earned more DCs. The more one earned the more they could afford, while no one was denied their Basic Rights. There were other things established to ensure Quality of Life. For instance by using Discretionary Credits, people were able to take vacations. A Time Share like system allowed individuals and families to select the type of vacation they wished to have. Airfare, ground transportation and lodging required Discretionary Credits. Food Credits covered Food. The more Discretionary Credits a person possessed the more they could afford, like upgrades to a more luxurious vacation. An exchange facility was established whereby a person, couple or family living in one location could exchange places with their equivalent in another location. This flexibility was popular among Takers. Takers with young children could move around as and when they wished provided they were able to find an exchange opportunity. Another phenomena that emerged is that some Takers excelled in creativity and every once in awhile an art form or innovation would emerge and achieve some recognition. This earned them more Discretionary Credits. It was not uncommon for a Maker to transition into a Taker and then re-emerge as a Maker.

Inflation and Deflation Eliminated:

Goods and Services were pegged to Credits and their cost in Credits remained the same. For instance a Pound of Salt; the very basic essential was pegged at One Food Credit. The price of all food items was derived in relation to a Pound of Salt. Each individual was given one Housing Credit per month. A family of four was entitled to a four bedroom apartment. With this system of Credits, inflation or deflation was completely eliminated.

The Demise of Wall Street:

With the establishment of Credits which was a virtual currency; with inflation/deflation beaten, the notion of banking and investing was disbanded which led to the demise of Wall Street. Makers consisted primarily of Innovators, Entrepreneurs, Entertainers, Artists, Educators, Lawyers, Doctors, etc. which earned them Discretionary Credits. The demand for Bankers, Brokers, Investment Counselors, and Economists dropped, except for a few in the government to deal with International Trade, which was minimal.

Democracy Turned on its Head:

Centralized democracy as practiced till the late 21st Century was disbanded. The country transitioned itself into self governance. District lines were drawn to contain approximately one million adults. Each district was represented by a Mayor and his/her Council Members. Each Council member had a specific area of oversight such as; Human Rights, Commerce, Law, Education, Environment, Agriculture, Health, Safety, Code of Conduct, Quality of Life etc. Council members were elected by citizens from a pool of experts. The elected local representatives consisting of Mayor and Council Members gained more power over national issues through a Council System. Council Members met regularly with their counterparts through teleconferencing. Changes to existing rules and regulations were ratified at Quarterly National Conferences. The President became like the King/Queen of England, a nominal head. Debate by citizens was encouraged and dissension tolerated. Places called Rebel Worlds and Opinion Worlds were set up where people could voice their opinions, suggestions and complaints. Issues had to be backed by facts. People were warned when making wild allegations, which had to be retracted or face litigation. Legitimate issues resulted in petitions that were debated and voted upon, then taken up by the Mayor and the Council Member to be ratified. If the resolution had a multi-district or national implication, it was taken up at the appropriate Council Meeting to be ratified at the appropriate level. Changes proposed at the Council Meeting were sent back to the people for debate and discussion and voted upon again. These petitions were at times debated for months and years and went through many cycles of voting before being agreed upon. All proposals and resolutions had to pass the Fairness Principle.

The Fairness Principle: The Fairness Principle was guided by the following:

• Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.
• The needs of the many outweigh the needs of a few.
• Equality of Rights extended to every human.
• Minority Rights had to be protected, no matter how small the Minority.
• Equal opportunity for all did not mean everyone was equal.

Additional privileges were awarded in proportion to Merit. The establishment of Fundamental Rights was accompanied by a System of Responsibilities. For instance, even though the population was falling, preventive measures to ensure a healthy population and prevent teenage pregnancies were introduced. This involved all girls of child bearing age to have a “reversible” birth control procedure. Approval was required of single women and couples wishing to bear children, which included a course on parenting and passing of tests. One of the tests that had to be taken was DNA analysis. This was a contentious issue but the law was passed nevertheless after much debate. By analyzing and matching the DNA, it was possible to determine the physical and mental characteristics of the baby. Draconian as this may sound, it actually worked very well once instituted. Women were given the choice of either artificial insemination or fertilized implants to ensure a healthy baby. This DNA analysis suited single women who wished to have children. Women were permitted to have only two children after which they had to undergo the reversible “birth control” procedure. The “two children law” was fiercely contested by conservatives. So an amendment was introduced whereby, couples/individuals wishing to have more than two children had to qualify and obtain permission. After much debate and wrangling a quantifiable set of qualifiers was agreed upon. To monitor and address obesity children had an embedded capsule in their body that broadcasted their vital signs. This capsule served as an embedded health monitor that notified health services if any intervention was required. The benefit of this was that the children grew up to live a long and healthy life. Broadcasting a person’s position was another feature which enabled monitoring of children. This monitoring, even after an individual reached adulthood, became a contentious issue. The ACLU fought this vigorously, but had to rescind because of its inherent medical benefits. Broadcasting the person’s location enabled delivery of emergency services.

The Leisure Reality of the 22nd Century: 

The age old saying, “An idle mind is a devil’s workshop,” is an axiom that transcends generations and holds true for the human race. Kids will be kids, they challenge authority and some get into trouble. For many years a group of educationalists critiqued the “assembly line” education system that was devised for the industrial age and prepared graduates for “structured” work in a “structured” environment. Factories requiring organized human labour ceased to exist long ago. Working on innovation involves a significant amount of flexibility and self direction. The criticism of these educationalists came home to roost in this new era. A child could grow up and chose not to seek a “job”, and would have to have the tools to keep preoccupied and out of trouble. The emphasis of education was reoriented to prepare children for this unstructured society by instilling civic responsibility and discipline. Schools taught children to think independently, work in groups to solve problems with adequate assistance and minimal supervision. Habitual offenders were assigned to boot camps to remedy their behaviour. As a result, the criminal population declined and included only the “hopeless” cases.

Towards a new World order:

The tumultuous period the US went through while automation displaced humans, was decried by the rest of the world as the end of Capitalism. On the one hand, the GDP increased rapidly, the US became a net exporter of goods and food grains, and the trade deficit was wiped out. And yet the plight of people deteriorated. The US economic indicators looked good but people’s lives were being decimated, the rest of the world was not faring better, except that both the economic indicators and the Quality of Life was deteriorating. It was then that the US realized that the economic principles in vogue were irrelevant and that a rapid transition to a new world order was the solution. The emergence of the US from its predicament reinstated its position of world leader and the beacon for other countries to follow. With plenty to give and nothing to want, US took an active role in aiding the rest of the world and replicate its success. As more and more countries adopted the US way, people freely moved between these countries.

A path to a new world order emerged where borders were soon to become meaningless and the term; “citizenship” would become a term of association as opposed to a term of privilege or rights. The world started looking more and more like it does from space; a Blue Marble with people living in harmony and peace.