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Thursday, December 03, 2020

P. Sainath Interview with Faye D’Souza

jotted down notes as I listened to this interview.   


I have read Sainath’s book, “Everyone likes a Drought”. Sainath is a jhole walla, he is a good man, his intentions are good and is very good at identifying problems but offers few viable solutions. 

In his book he alluded to the unviability of marginal farming, saying people who don’t have farm land have other options like migrating for work. I have written about this years ago. Marginal farming is dead! A link is provided at the end. 

The need for Fertilizers, pesticides, buying seed has hastened marginal farming’s demise, but we keep throwing good money after a bad practice. Growing value crops is more lucrative but some require years to start yielding. 

In my write up I mention cooperative farming. Now there has been success in Zero budget farming as a possible solution for a collective marginal farmers. Something on the lines of Amul. Querying Google Guru with Zero Budget farming will provide explanation.

Currently only tea and coffee can be under large corporates. Putting these items under essential commodities was a way to keep corporates out of “farming” these commodities. 

From an overall perspective the country has been run in some sectors like farming and rural economy on a jhole walla ideology steeped in socialism. These sectors are riddled with problems that Sainath describes very eloquently. No mention of corruption!  

On the other hand the suit/boot sector has been doing relatively well. The pandemic hit everyone. 

What we are seeing is a transition from Nehruvian policies that constrained the suit/boot sector till liberalisation, ignoring Rural Bharat and sprinkling some money in Rural endeavours as advocated by Jhole Wallas. Some of their recommendations involve large amounts of money to be spent regularly. Where is that going to come from? Regarding many subsidies even Man Mohan Singh once mentioned money does not grow on trees. Side note: Many trees yield money. So these Jhole Wallas provide good information on problems being faced and tilt at windmills in proposing some solutions. 

Modian policies include retaining NREGA which he criticised but realised it as a necessity, along with a mixture of programs intended to incentivise people to pursue opportunities even if it means opening a pakoda stand. Modinomics also includes allowing suit/boots to venture into  agriculture, from which they were barred. 

Corporations cannot be allowed to run unbridled. They have to be constrained by guidelines. The farming sector is controlled extensively by unscrupulous middle men. This is an attempt to break these shackles. In Sainath’s mind it might lead to additional shackles. The operative word is “might”, without giving it a chance. 

P.S. Sainath refers to them as Armani clad people which is an exaggeration steeped in sarcasm. 

The first bogey is the allowing entry of big companies into buying. There will be competition and that will regulate prices. Right now we have middle men dictating the prices and they show no mercy. 

Faye asks what about the small farmer with two sacks of onions? What a ridiculous question. A big company is going to deal with big farmers and consolidators. 

This whole argument is just speculating problems steeped in mistrust of big business. 

The lack of contractual follow through is an issue. That can be addressed through futures trading (like shares) and/or a third party escrow agent who is given the clout to ensure both parties deliver to their commitments. 

Sainath talks about farm family income. That is the current reality. It has nothing to do with the farm bill. 

The fragmenting of farms through successive generations is real. The fights that erupt are happening and has nothing to do with the Farm Bill. 

Faye mentions farmers growing cash crops and ignoring everyday items, pointing out sugarcane growing in water scarce area. This has been happening for years. Again speculating more of this will happen. What nonsense. 

Sainath talks about contract farming of tomatoes. He throws out a statement that no self respecting Punjabi will eat those Tomatoes. Another speculation. And again mentions the issue of reneging the agreed upon prices. Yes, it can be a problem and needs to be fixed. 

There is always an issue of supply and demand economics. It is prevalent today. Onion prices shot up, due to heavy rains. And then has come down. As long as supply stays slightly short of demand we won’t see this problem. 

He mentions the problem of vanilla growing that resulted in farmer suicides in Kerala, in 2001. Nineteen years ago? There was frost in Brazil and Mexico resulting in extreme shortage. Buyers approached farmers the world over. Prices held up for a while and crashed. He claims he warned the farmers who were consumed by greed. Who is to blame? He goes into great detail to claim “I told you so!” Bravo! This is an issue to criticise this Act! What nonsense! 

He is living and dwelling in the past! Providing info to farmers is key. We have better communications today that can be researched and disseminated. 

BTW there were health issues regarding the spraying of endosulfan over cashew crops. The govt did not ban it because of corporate pressure. Ultimately farmers stopped using it. People have choices. 

He mentions the PepsiCo controversy over  potatoes. It was settled due to public pressure. So why is this a problem. These issues can be fixed. Saying this is going to be institutionalised is throwing another problem that can be fixed by institutionalisation. This is an excellent example how farmers can take on a corporate. Try taking on a Zamindar!

For instance Monsanto wanted to sue farmers whose crops supposedly benefited from pollination from a neighbour’s farm! Here too farmers agitation overcame the clutches of a corporation. Does Sainath get this?

Regarding APMC’s, claiming that they are going to be disbanded is not true. There will be competing mandis and farmers will have a choice to take their produce to the mandi of their preference. Provided their local goon allows them to. 

Sainath goes to great lengths to explain a solution which proposes a Bill be passed in Parliament that Guarantees MSP. Really? There has been a method of establishing MSP which involves a lot of back and forth and that will continue. The issue is adoption of Swaminathan method. Why does this need a Bill to be passed. Next there will be demands to establish prices for other items. There will always be an MSP. That is assured. What is not assured is whether it is adequate or not. That has been the case all these years. The  Swaminathan method is a reference point. It is not the gold standard. Yes, it was apparently a campaign promise by the BJP that was not kept. This happens all the time regarding many unkept promises. 

Regarding guaranteed procurement, he has hit the nail on the head. Punjab and Haryana farmers have been enjoying guaranteed procurement at a preferential price, which has been retracted. Hence the protest. Instead the govt should forecast demand and indicate what should be produced. Managing supply and demand across multiple parties, and produce is complicated and needs to be addressed. Sainath should stay away from economics. Doesn’t look like his forte. 

Doubling farmer’s income by 2022 is a wish and a vision. Expecting the farmer to continue what they are doing and expecting a doubling is a pipe dream. If Sainath wants to call it a lie, he can. Call it a jumla. There are so many rights in the Constitution that have been ignored. This is not a constitutional issue. 

The worst possibility is inflation goes out of control. The farmer’s income is doubled but real income stays the same. If this is the measure, real income for labourers have gone up over a period of years, and farmer’s income has not, then the solution is to provide farmer’s with other opportunities. Like Sainath mentions, brothers migrate to urban areas and help the farming father with remittances. 

Stick to exposing problems, which he is very good at and demand govt address the problem. In some cases like the Vanilla episode, govt should provide advice if they have relevant info and let people decide. 

Why ban procurement by large parties. Let the farmer decide. Right now many farmers are beholden to middle men who exhort the farmers to sell at a lower price. How come Sainath fails to mention this? P.S. He does later on. 

He talks about debt relief. How many times should this be done. How do you provide debt relief to a farmer who has borrowed money from a money lender at exorbitant rates. Indentured debt is a social problem. What has that got to do with this Bill. He wants all the problems identified by him to be resolved by this bill! Keep tilting at Wind Mills. There is a case for giving farmer’s cash subsidies. But this carrot should be accompanied by a stick. If the farmer does not perform, unless due to uncontrollable circumstances, he should be made aware that he might lose his farm. 

While describing the role of APMCs he finally mentions the grip of private traders on farmers to whom they have loaned money. This bondage has been unbroken since the British established the Zamindari system. The farm bill is the governments attempt to break this bondage. One possibility is to increase the number of govt mandis. The issue then is should the govt invest more in procurement or invite privatisation. Sainath and his fellow Jhole  Wallas are dead set against private industry participation. They will complain about the status quo and criticise any attempt that does not align itself with their ideology. The farm act has been likened to liberalisation. Rather than giving the process a chance, they are acting like those who cried wolf when liberalisation occurred. 

Farming is the largest private industry in Bharat that according to him is stifled by the govt controlled APMC, not to mention the grip of the middle men as mentioned earlier. On the one hand, it seems he is warning about the closure of APMCs, which is not true, and at the same time warning about a new grip that will be imposed by corporatisation. 

What he doesn’t acknowledge is that the organised sector despite its periodic problems with labour has been productive. Maybe astute farmers might partner with corporates and settle for a steady stream of income from their partner who takes up most of the risk. The worst that would happen is that the farmer sells out and squanders what they were paid. That too has frequently happened in cases where eminent domain was imposed for public projects and the criticism has been that the farmers were not paid a fair price. The Land Acquisition Bill passed by the UPA has provisions to overcome that. But here too the people have to share the blame, since sales price recorded is far less then what was paid in order to save on stamp duty. You reap what you sow. 

It is true, the pandemic and shut down disrupted the distribution chain. And unscrupulous traders took advantage wherever they could. He attributes some of the problems due to in unavailability of labour provided by migrants. What! There was mass migration of migrants from urban centers to their villages and we were made aware of the problems they faced. This allegation of Sainath doesn’t make sense. Where does he pull this from? 

Then he talks of mandating that farmers should be forced to grow crops that will feed the people. Essentially bring government control over Bharat’s largest private sector!

He finally mentions the suit boot transition from the hitherto Jhole Walla dominated situation. 

The cotton surplus is another instance of tragic circumstances. Farming is risky business. Are all farmers equipped to undertake this risk? 

He then embarks on the problems in health and education. The lack of laptops and no smart phones. The pandemic has effected everyone. Hopefully it is a short term phenomena. Both he (and I and our generation) grew up without computers and smart phones and we have done very well for ourselves. Yes, the digital divide is an issue, poverty is an issue. BTW, govt can and will provide WIFI hotspots where people can download for free. Yes it is becoming more and more a necessity. Focus on farming yaar. Refrain from boiling the ocean. Incidentally, many parents in small towns send their children to private schools. This does not mean we should privatise government schools. How about giving the amount spent on a child to the parent by way of a voucher. Allow them to enrol their child in a private school if they choose. I’m just saying.  

Faye makes another attempt to bring focus to farming from Sainath’s ramblings. 

Again he launches off on a tangent about GST after stating Agriculture is a State responsibility. If so relieve the Center from that responsibility. Stop complaining about the Bill. Don’t expect the Center to assist in fixing State issues. All the problems the country faced prior to GST, Farming, Education, Health, Poverty, Law & Order are State issues. The State can establish their own MSP. Why appeal to the Centre?

He talks of the Vashi APMC, bemoaning lack of corporate participation around it. For what? Corporates have set up outlets all over the place. They can obtain supplies from wherever they want. 

He slips in the fact that APMC’s are a source of revenue for the States. Fine, but why should it be a monopoly?

Then he takes a pot shot at NABARD. A valid one. Good point raised. But what has it got to do with the Farm Bills? Yes it should be addressed. Maybe they are getting better rate of returns from Urban Borrowers rather than face delinquencies from rural borrowers. Whatever it is, the objective has to be changed or it should be eliminated. Good luck with doing the latter. 

Again Faye brings him back from his rambling tirade against NABRD. He responds to the question about forming cooperatives. Much as I pointed out way in the beginning before listening to this part. 

Direct farm to home is a good idea, but it is not a panacea for the entire farming sector. 

Farmers market is another good idea and does happen in Karnataka on a weekly basis. They were shut down during Covid lockdown and opened in Nov 2020. Nothing new here. 

There was no mention of Zero Budget Farming which is an essential component of cooperative farming. 

To solve the overall problem there are many issues to be addressed. There has to be a shift from farm labour to other jobs, mitigation from climate issues, improve productivity, land consolidation from fragmentation due to successive inheritance, crop insurance, subsidies where appropriate and a whole lot more. 

Here is a link to my article:


April 2093 Farmers protested UPAs ban on corporates from procuring wheat. Farmers were forced to sell at MSP, whereas the would have got a better price from corporates. 


Here are more details on why farmers were upset:


August 2010 Sharad Powar wrote to Sheila Dixit citing the need to amend the State APMC Act to promote private investment:


The report goes into great lengths about differences in what Pawar is advocating. These differences can be ironed out it relevant. The overall recommendation is for private investment and participation. 

Here is another article on why Punjab, Haryana and Western UP farmers are agitating. They are upset on being weaned off of FCI gravy. Sainath provides a rear view mirror description of the past which is well known with some anecdotes like the Vanilla and Cotton crisis. It is clear his view regarding “liberalising” the farm sector is jaded with his bias of anti-corporate ideology. 

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/punjab-farmers-are-fighting-to-protect-their-privileges-they-should-stop-pretending-to-be-representatives-of-all-farmers

Finally here is an interesting opinion on resistance to change. 

As received in WhatsApp. Point of view. 

Modi Government passes Farmers Bills!*

*The Real Story: When I was in school, one rainy day I found a small bird 🐦 which was just hatched from an egg 🥚 & had fallen down from a tree; it’s Mother was no where in sight!*

*I brought it home and fed it small worms 🐛 and brought it up! After it grew up, my Dad wanted me to let it off to the wild, but the bird didn’t want to go!*

*Whenever I set it free, it came back to our home! My Dad used to say that manyatimes we are so adapted to our mental prisons, that we feel pained, even when someone liberates us!*

*I was in school when Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao opened up India to foreign companies and industries!*

*Then there was a huge furore, that we will be enslaved by foreign companies, like that of the East India Company once again, and we will become Ghulams of foreigners!*

*Leading the pack who protested, were Indian Companies like Bajaj, who virtually had a monopoly in two-wheelers, and Ambassador Cars by Birla's Hindusthan Motors, which was the only car available, and then the usual suspects like C@mmunists (they were still powerful in those days!), workers Union leaders and media!*

*I never understood why we should protest, when we are getting the Fords and the Hondas to Indian markets, as it will create more jobs, and give us better cars, than those horrible Ambassador cars!*

*I was like we should also start growing up like China and Korea!*

*But Dad said we are protesting as we are afraid of the unknown, just like that little bird I had!*

*We are content with staying poor and malnourished, with the so called Hindu Rate of Growth!*

*These protests went on all 5 years during PVNR rule, and he eventually lost the national general elections after 5 years!*

*Today, everyone says he is the man who truly liberated India! And today, if we are among the 5 biggest Economies of the world, it is due to his policies!*

*The same thing happened when computers came to India! They said it will take away jobs, and everything will be controlled by software companies!*

*But, today, India is a software powerhouse and it has created millions of jobs!*

*Now, Agriculture Reforms are happening after 74 years of Independence! For the first time, farmers will be free of clutches of middlemen and Dalals!*

*It is the middlemen who became millionaires in India, while the Farmers are always in debts!*

*And the consumers end up paying more and more for food and commercial crops every year!*

*These middlemen are so powerful people, that they form the backbone of many parties like NCP, the Akalis, the Punjab Congress and many other regional parties!*

*Hence, no one tried to tamper with Agriculture Market Reforms!*

*Once, when Indira Gandhi was told to control these middlemen, she asked: "Should we stop contesting elections ?"*

*Many of my Family members and relatives are in controlling positions in APMCs, and they are all crorepatis!*

*Many of my Family members and relatives are Farmers, and I have often seen them only struggle in their lives!*

*Once I met a famous Professor in MIT, who was working on the Concept of a unified National Agriculture Market (NAM) in India, where the Indian Govt had asked him to design an AI model to connect all the markets of India!*

*His team worked on it for 2 years, and told the Govt that we can’t create a NAM until we allow Farmers to sell in an open market!*

*He told me the same, and said in 2018, that if the Modi Govt. wins in 2019, they would bring in huge Agricultural Reforms in their second term, which will double or treble the Farmer incomes, and since they make up for 60% of the Indian population, it will truly transform India!*

*Hence, I was rooting for Modi to come back and bring in these Reforms!*

*These Agriculture Reform are bigger than what PVNR did in 1991!*

*India will truly become a middle income country, as more and more people will get fruits for their labour!*

*Yes! There are many Farmers who are apprehensive!*

*They say MSP will go, and hence it is a loss! 
But the fact is, that the Govt will continue with the MSP!*

*And mark my words, after a few years, no one will need any MSP, as Farmers will be selling to the best market and making more money than MSP!*

*They said big corporations will monopolise, and control farming! It was told the same when GM, Ford, Toyota, and Honda came; or when McDonalds or KFC came!*

*But fact is, GM ran away from India and Maruti controls 51% market share, and Honda has 3%!*

*It is Cafe Coffee Day which is India’s biggest brand, than McDonlads or KFC!*

*And a Wagh-Bakri Chai Point is bigger than Starbucks!*

*In the same way, market forces and proper regulations will never let some one control the whole of farming in India!*

*India is too big, too diversified, for any one company to monopolise it!*

*And most importantly, Digital Tech and AI will transform market intelligence, and make every farmer access any good market, without selling it to a Dalal or a big company!*

*Now Democracy has truly reached Agriculture, and Farmers have got their

Thursday, November 23, 2017

Autonomous Weapons are the wave of the Future


This is scary stuff, but it is going to get real. The following is an article that points to a video that demonstrates the carnage autonomous weapons can inflict:


The video is produced by UC Berkeley professor Stuart Russell and references the website: http://autonomousweapons.org/

The organization takes a very "Western" centric view of this issue. Furthermore the proponents of the ban are missing the point entirely. We have past the point of no return. The Genie is out of the bottle. Drone strikes are being conducted by State actors. With miniaturization, this capability will be available in the hands of hobbyists. An anonymous "hit" can be executed by person who remotely controls a little drone with a lethal injection or chemical to get rid of a target in sight while sitting in a car that is either stationery or while in motion. If he/she misses, it will be chalked to collateral damage. No need for AI, no need for facial recognition (camera will do) for executing this hit. Anyone who can control a miniature drone can annihilate a target and there will be no traceablility. How are non-state actors going to be stopped? Political Leaders will have to move around in bomb proof enclosures and use holographic images for public appearances. Public figures will have establish a public Avatar so that they can lead a private life. 

On one hand this is an excellent way to neutralize big budget Military spending. On the other hand (I am talking like an economist) the implications are many. For Bharat, this technology is the best way to neutralize Terroristan (Pakistan) and constant needling from China. It obviates the need for boots on the ground, piloted Jet fighters, sitting ducks like Aircraft carriers and heavy artillery. As mentioned in the excellently produced video it makes nuclear weapons obsolete. In the future military arsenal will consist of rockets and drones of various capacities. Whether they are autonomous or remotely controlled is just a degree of sophistication. An army of soldiers can control an army of drones.

There is no stopping technology. What we need to think is how to neutralize this trend. Trying to ban it is like pushing rope. We can't let rogue actors who have this capability utilize it. No amount of surveillance (CCTV, Cell Phone monitoring) will be adequate. At some point this will reach a crisis stage. One solution is Mind Control. Shades of 1984. This will have to start at the preschool level and the mind of the individual checked periodically. Bursts of anger will be monitored and violent actions would be punished. We will have to kiss the Western notion of Democracy and Privacy goodbye. Personal privacy will be a thing of the past. The challenge is to leverage technology while addressing its pitfalls like this one.

Mind control is another frontier that is rapidly progressing. Take a look at this:

https://www.ted.com/talks/greg_gage_how_to_control_someone_else_s_arm_with_your_brain

What if neutralizing this anonymous hit threat, requires that everyone be embedded with sensors that monitor their thoughts?

This article elucidates the socio-political-economic impact of automation. Technology could very well herald the Utopian Dream:

http://deshbandhu.blogspot.in/2017/04/usa-2100_21.html

Hopefully rue merit will be rewarded and it will end the current trend towards mediocrity and populism. Maybe we will realize John Lennon's dream some day.

https://vimeo.com/18730165

Maybe, just maybe. We hope!





Friday, April 21, 2017

USA 2100



While technologists point to the advances in automation that will displace many jobs that humans perform, economists are scratching their heads and are not looking beyond the near future. Sociologists haven't a clue other than forecasting an ominous future. Educators are noting that we are moving towards an unstructured world and our current education system is tailored to a factory oriented assembly line. Technologists, economists, sociologists and educators focus on their own silos of expertise and don't look at the complete picture. Opinions are expressed in the context of the silos of each opinion maker. Politicians are concerned about getting elected, responding to the immediate needs of their constituents and responding to crisis. There needs to be some thought given to what children born today will encounter when they reach middle age and their senior years. There are competing predictions. However there is no analysis that ties it all together in a socioeconomic and political context.

This article takes a comprehensive view of the developments and forces at play in looking at what the future could well turn out. It focuses on the US, since that is where the initial impact would occur.

In the beginning of the 22nd Century:

By the year 2100 Automation will have penetrated every aspect of American life. Cars will be self driven. So will trains, buses and planes. Robots will do the cooking and cleaning. Everything conceivable that requires human effort will be automated. Robots will even look after children, the elderly and the invalid. Only the most sophisticated, delicate and intricate tasks will be performed by humans. That too will be a rarity. It will be an era of plenty. Energy will be plentiful; mostly safe renewable solar, wind and nuclear energy. Even defense will be highly automated, consisting of missiles, jet fighters that fly by themselves, drones and micro-drones. These micro-drones will be able to seek and incapacitate an individual by stinging them with a powerful sedative or kill them with a lethal injection. Hunger and poverty will be banished. There will be no shortage of essential goods and creature comforts. Technological breakthroughs in energy, automation in manufacturing, construction, farming etc. will have brought the cost of goods and services down significantly and it will become economical and viable to just give everyone their basic necessities along with robots to serve them.

With increasing unemployment a Guaranteed Minimum Income Program (GMI) will have to be instituted. It will be further expanded. Credits will replace the Monetary System. Everyone will be given Monthly Basic Credits (MBCs) – Housing Credits, Food Credits and Discretionary Credits. Education and Healthcare will be free. People will be able to earn more Credits in a variety of ways, reminiscent of jobs as defined in the 21st Century, to afford more. Inflation will be virtually non-existent since everything is indexed to the Credits. A commodity will cost the same number of Credits regardless. Money will have ceased to be important and the notion of banking and investing might even be disbanded which may precipitate the demise of Wall Street. Wall Street may exist only in name.

Private Capitalism will be replaced by State Capitalism. The importance of “Capital” itself will diminish. Technology will devour the current notion of Capitalism. National self-sufficiency which is an embodiment of what Gandhi postulated will be the prevailing mantra.

There will be peace and happiness. It will take significant changes and cataclysmic shifts to get to this situation. Even with a few detractors, the majority agree that the solution achieved will be as close to Utopia as one can get.

The path to the Age of Leisure:

The US consists of:

  • Makers, who add “real” value to the economy
  • Takers, who live of entitlements and subsidies

With the advent of automation, more and more people will be forced out of work. The Taker population will comprise of not only habitual Takers, but others forced into this predicament due to the unavailability of jobs or their inability to function as Makers in the highly specialized environment. As more and more automation sets in, even the service economy will be affected and service jobs like gardening, burger flipping, waiting & busing tables etc. will get automated. This will create a major rift between the Haves and the Have Nots. The country will have a dwindling population of Makers, Servers (Service Providers) and an expanding population of Takers.

Food Stamps to the Rescue:

To counter the trend of increasing poverty, the Food Stamp Program and Unemployment Benefits will have to be expanded. Providing and extending these entitlements will be heavily fought over by fiscal conservatives. Their point well taken. Money spent on entitlements is not effective in solving the problem. Government and the poor have one thing in common. Both live beyond their means and spend more than they have. Furthermore, money poured at the bottom and near bottom of the pyramid bubbles up to the top and the income gap widens. But the government will be faced with rising unemployment resulting in increasing poverty and less money being spent. The consumer economy will collapse and this will set a downward spiral in the price of produce and manufactured goods. Massive deflation will set in. The country will get thrown into deep depression. Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is the only answer and will have to be introduced. The alternative is “refugee colonies” where people are taken care of and live a structured communal life. Meanwhile due to investments in automation, the entire Farm to Fork chain will be automated. As a result the agriculture economy will go into a downward tail spin. With falling prices, farmers will default on their loans banks will be left holding the bag and the government will be forced to take over bankrupted farms. With the ever expanding Food Stamp program, it will make eminent sense for the government to own agriculture. This will introduce State Capitalism and impact Free Market Capitalism. A Food Stamp Economy will emerge, it will be a success. Hunger and malnutrition will be eliminated.

The situation in cities will deteriorate. Homelessness will be on the rise to unprecedented levels. The country will be driven to the brink of disaster by uncontrollable law and order. Prisons will over flow and the government will have to start building more prisons to accommodate the increasing population of criminals.

Enter Housing Credits:

While the situation gets worse; and on the verge of reaching a tipping point of anarchy, the politicians citing the success of the Food Stamp program will recommend that the government apply this principle to Housing as well and just give minimum housing to Takers. The rationale will be instead of building more prisons, why not build housing. Food is already taken care of and housing will take care of giving people a roof over their heads. And so along with Food Stamps, the government will issue Housing Credits. This will bring about significant relief to the situation and more Monetary relief.

The Collapse of Commodity Prices:

Extensive recycling and reuse will result in judicious use of non-renewable resources. This will extend the availability of non-renewable resources for the 22nd Century and beyond. The drop in demand will crater the prices of raw materials. Mining, refining, transportation, manufacturing, delivering will be automated with minimal human intervention. Technological breakthroughs in energy, automation in manufacturing, construction, etc. will bring the cost of goods and services down even further. With the collapse of prices and subsequent defaults, the politicians will recommend that the government take over of mines and oil fields as well. That will sound the death knell of Free Market Capitalism and will be replaced fully by State Capitalism. Fossil fuels will become yesterday’s energy source and demand for it will evaporate. With that the debate on climate change will be put to bed. The cost of goods will drop to such an insignificant level that it becomes economical and viable to just give the Takers the essentials that they need along with robots to serve them as well, to enjoy a comfortable Quality of Life of Leisure, since energy is cheap and everything is automated.

The New US:

The US will become completely self sufficient. Trading with other countries will decrease to a negligible level. The world will be forced to survive without relying on the US economy. Europe and the BRICS countries will pick up the slack. The US will no longer be accused of pursuing an expansionist foreign policy. The rhetoric will shift to the rest of the world accusing the US of being an isolationist. National self sufficiency which is an embodiment of what Gandhi postulated will be the prevailing mantra. China that copies US innovations indiscriminately will cry fowl since Chinese innovations will be replicated in the US. The Dollar may continue to be an International Currency, but most of the Dollars will circulate overseas since the US finds little use for it domestically. A Dollar to US Credit exchange will emerge. This will be utilized by tourists visiting the US, and by US citizens wishing to travel abroad and for existing trade to acquire Rare Earths and the like. The entire Product Cycle from Supply Chain, Manufacturing and Distribution being automated requires very little human intervention. Robots will build and produce, humans will consume. Technological advances will reduce or eliminate the reliance on Capital. The new order is not “Capitalism” (State or Private), Socialism or Communism. Scholars will wrestle with what to call it.

Fundamental Rights:

Entitlements will be re-branded and will become Fundamental Rights which will include Basic food and Housing; institutionalized as the Right to Food and Right to Housing. To this Right to Education will be added; which will become essentially free and dispensed through Massive Open On-line Courses (MOOCs), and the Right to Health Care; which which will also be highly automated and free. The much fought over and maligned Affordable Care Act will be re-branded as Right to Health and made Universal.

Cradle to Grave Security:

With cradle to grave support provided for by the government, there will be no need for 20th Century entitlement programs - Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Disability, Welfare, Unemployment Benefits, subsidies etc. will all be eliminated. With the basic set of Rights established, all forms of Subsidies and Entitlements will be eliminated. Everyone will be entitled to these Rights and in order to avail of these Rights a set of Responsibilities will have to established to maintain social balance and harmony. All of these transitions will provide more Monetary relief to the government. A new category of people will emerge; Servers, who serve Makers; Servers who serve affluent Makers who prefer to be served by humans rather than robots. And so we have Makers, Takers and Servers.

Credits will Replace Currency:

In implementing these fundamental rights the government will establish a new currency of exchange called Credits. Since Food Stamps and Housing Credits will already be in place, all rolled into a Basic Credit System of Food Credits, Housing Credits. Education and Healthcare will not require any Credits. A new Credit will be introduced called Discretionary Credits. These could be commonly called FC, HC and DC. Discretionary Credits could be applied to anything. Takers will able to live within the Basic Credits they are given. The income inequality that widened in first part of the 21st Century will vanish. Makers could earn more Credits by virtue of their occupation and contribution to society, much like today, which will allow them to live a more “affluent” life style. Makers will be able to upgrade their housing by applying Discretionary Credits or chose to live a simple lifestyle on their entitled Housing Credits. They could use their Discretionary Credits (entitled and earned) for whatever they chose. Inheritance rights will be preserved. People, who inherited property, will have no use for their unused Housing Credits. The Commercial and Rental Real Estate market will collapse with dwindling demand. It will become the property of the government by default. The oldest profession may continue to exist.

Inflation and Deflation Eliminated:

Goods and Services will be pegged to Credits and their cost in Credits will remain the same. For instance a Pound or Kilo of Salt; the very basic essential could be pegged at One Food Credit. The price of all food items could be derived in relation to a Pound or Kilo of Salt. Each individual could be given one Housing Credit per month. A family of four would be entitled to a four bedroom apartment. With this system of Credits, inflation or deflation will be completely eliminated.

The Demise of Wall Street:

With the establishment of Credits which is a virtual currency; with inflation/deflation beaten, the notion of banking and investing will be disbanded which will lead to the demise of Wall Street. The demand for Bankers, Brokers, Investment Counselors, and Economists will be eliminated, except for a few in the government to deal with International Trade, which will be minimal.

The Leisure Reality of the 22nd Century:

The age old saying, “An idle mind is a devil’s workshop,” is an axiom that transcends generations and holds true for the human race. Kids will be kids, they challenge authority and some get into trouble. The educationalists who critiqued the “assembly line” education system that was devised for the industrial age and prepared graduates for “structured” work in a “structured” environment, will finally have their say. Factories requiring organized human labour will cease to exist. Working on innovation involves a significant amount of flexibility and self direction. The criticism of these educationalists will come home to roost in this new era. A child who grows up and chooses not to seek a “job”, will be given the “tools” to keep preoccupied and out of trouble. The emphasis of education will have to be reoriented to prepare children for this unstructured society by instilling civic responsibility and discipline. Schools will have to teach children to think independently, work in groups to solve problems with adequate assistance and minimal supervision. Habitual offenders might have to be assigned to boot camps to remedy their behaviour. As a result, the criminal population will decline and include only the “hopeless” cases. A walled predominantly self governed township could be set up to isolate criminals and these exceptions.

Preparing for the Age of Leisure:

A number of initiatives will have to be introduced to handle the majority Taker population. The following are some suggestions.

Promote the idea of Entertainment & Activity Centers where people can utilize their Discretionary Credits to access the recreational facilities provided. Many activities can be provided free; others purchased with Discretionary Credits. Tournaments, games could be conducted to enable people to earn Discretionary Credits that they can use for special privileges like golfing, horse back riding, etc.

There can be many avenues like volunteering, taking courses etc. to earn DCs and that could be used to acquire things to satisfy human vanity, such as human made items or works of art.

While these Entertainment and Activity Centers could be accessible to everyone, exclusive Country Clubs can be set up as well that require significant DCs to access. These would be the places frequented by affluent Makers. This would be a true meritocracy wherein competence and creating value earns more DCs. The more one earns the more they can afford, while no one is denied their Basic Rights.

There can be other things established to ensure Quality of Life. For instance by using Discretionary Credits, people can take vacations. A Time Share like system would allow individuals and families to select the type of vacation they wish to have. Airfare, ground transportation and lodging would require Discretionary Credits. Food Credits will cover Food. The more Discretionary Credits a person possesses the more they will be able to afford, like upgrades to a more luxurious vacation.

An exchange facility can be established whereby a person, couple or family living in one location could exchange places with an equivalent in another location. Individuals and families can move around as and when they wish provided they are able to find an exchange opportunity.

Another phenomena that may emerge is that every once in awhile some Takers who excel in creativity and an art form or innovation would emerge and achieve some recognition. This will earn them more Discretionary Credits. It will not uncommon for a Maker to transition into a Taker and then re-emerge as a Maker.

People would have lots of choices. Farmers could migrate to cities to experience a new life. Many city dwellers could move to rural America and chose the simple rural life of being close to nature and mother earth.

Towards a new World order:

The tumultuous period the US will go through while automation displaces humans, will be decried by the rest of the world as the curse of Capitalism. On the one hand, the GDP will increase rapidly, the US may become a net exporter of goods and food grains, that will wipe out the trade deficit. Initially as the US economic indicators look good people’s lives will be decimated, with the rest of the world not faring better. It is only when the US realizes that the economic principles in vogue are irrelevant and that a rapid transition to a new world order is the solution.

The US will emerge from its predicament and reinstate its position of world leader and become the beacon for other countries to follow. With plenty to give and nothing to want, US can take an active role in aiding the rest of the world and replicate its success.

A path to a new world order might emerge where borders become meaningless and the term; “citizenship” would become a term of association as opposed to a term of privilege or rights. The world might look more and more like it does from space; a Blue Marble with people living in harmony and peace.

References and supporting information:

John Maynard Keynes, wrote an article in 1930 titled - Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren where he takes “wings into the future.” What can we reasonably expect the level of our economic life to be a hundred years hence?  His basic premise is that productivity will continue to increase rendering more and more humans jobless.


2030 is more than a decade away and John Maynard's forecast is amazingly on target. Advances in automation, is affecting workers in developed countries and the impact is undeniable.

Jeremy Rifkin has coined the phrase, “The Zero Marginal Cost Society,” and written a book pointing out that the rapid advances in technology is “speeding us to an era of nearly free goods and services.”




He explains the impact on society in a talk he gave at the Churchill Club:






Nonemployed - As robots grow smarter, American workers struggle to keep up”:


This trend will continue to pick up pace and in the future we will see more and more jobs being performed by robots. So what does the future hold? Watch this video on humans need not apply:


And the alarm it raised for the author of the following article:


Computers are becoming smarter and the implications are described in this talk:


The children of the 21st Century will have bigger challenges in bringing up their children, than the 20th Century generation. The world has changed so much since our parenting experience. While the pace of change is accelerating society's ability to keep pace with its impact is not.

Society will have problems coping with the rate of change being brought about by technological advances and innovation. The rate of change is accelerating and every indication is that the effect on mankind will be cataclysmic unless it is planned for.

The following is a Sixty Minutes feature: Are robots hurting job growth?


Here is an opinion piece on the same subject:


Kurzeweil, who is considered by some to be the world's leading artificial intelligence (AI) visionary, coined the phrase, “Singularity” to describe the moment in the future when humans and machines will supposedly converge. He sees this happening by 2029 just fifteen years away.




Pundits are conflicted about this trend as portrayed in these TED talks:


Listen to the last 60 secs, of the opposing talk below, if you don't have the time. The title is half misleading. Innovation is not dead. Whether it will contribute to growth is the issue. Innovation will make things better for some and hurt others.


Notice the difference in age between the two speakers. Both agree on the rising income gap and the impact of automation. Education will be revolutionized by technology. This is not acknowledged by the second speaker. It will become more accessible. But, will people take advantage of it. What the US faces today and in the near future, the developing world will experience, not too far in the future. Innovation will continue, however currently, there is a diminishing rate of uplifting return due to innovation. More people are being rendered jobless due to automation. The first speaker acknowledges the challenges, and has a Utopian response; the second predicts society will be unable to cope and he challenges the current generation to deliver innovation that have the same uplifting impact as the past generations did.


None of these opinions delve into the massive socioeconomic-political changes that need to take place to address this trend.
Growing income inequality is a world wide phenomenon. For instance say one person makes 5,000 a month and another makes 10,000. Both get a 5% increase which takes their wages to 5,250 and 10,500 respectively. The income gap of 5,000 becomes 5,250. The wages for an unskilled or same skilled job is not going to keep pace with jobs that require special skills. It doesn't take a new set of skills to perform existing manual jobs like "load carrying", picking fruits and vegetables, etc.  Any wage increase is not because of upgraded skills. It will be paying more for people doing the same job,  to keep pace with inflation. The solution to the rising income gap is to reduce the cost to these people by way of subsidized housing, food, healthcare and education. Just about all countries provide these subsidies in some form or the other. The outlay for these “hand outs” is going to increase and needs to be planned for.

Developing countries face the problem of lack of opportunity for their citizens while developed countries are losing jobs to automation. Both are faced with people willing to work but lack opportunities. Furthermore, every country is faced with ‘Takers’ who are unproductive people, be it due to unavailability of opportunity, inability, age, or unwillingness to work.

With increasing automation, more and more jobs will be eliminated, which will increase the supply of workers and put a downward pressure on wages. There will be more and more people who are unable, or incapable and hence shut out from the "automated economy".

The short term solution to this problem is for the "productive" people the “Makers” to support the "unproductive" people the “Takers”. This is being practiced in some form or the other by every country.

Given the current socioeconomic-political situation this solution is not sustainable. We will be faced with a decreasing number of Makers that will have to support an increasing number of Takers.

The undeniable facts are:

Automation and design for manufacturing will become localized, but it will require fewer workers. The developing world will benefit and affected by this trend.

In the US the Middle Class that comprised mainly of Joe Plumber, Jack Electricians and Bob the construction man is being decimated. Wages are either stagnant or declining.


In the Developing World the opposite holds true, the Middle Class is growing and wages are improving for skilled, semi skilled and workers. But this “dividend” may be short lived. The rate at which technology is adopted by the Developing World is increasing as well. The downside of not increasing productivity is increased costs and reduced efficiency.