A Politically Incorrect Analysis

The BJP big wigs squatted in Shimla at their "Chintan Baitak" (Aug 19th-22nd, 2009) and agonized over their defeat in the Lok Sabha elections. What ought to have transpired.

Let's start at the top. Advani is a dinosaur. He doesn't appeal to youth of the country. He represents the "old India", that was responsible for the stifling "Nehruvian Rate" of progress. On the other hand, Dr. Manmohan Singh, with all his faults (no charisma, Mr. Mumble, robotic...) is genuine, has a brilliant mind that is honed for the current world economic dynamics and he has a gentle heart.

The BJP's Hindutva angle resonates wherever there is a significant Hindu-Muslim divide like in Gujarat and Karnataka. However, this does not appear to resonate at the National level. And so the BJP has relegated itself to more of a Regional Party with some National Presence. And the Congress has asserted itself as a National Party.

Looking back at the election rhetoric, the Congress harped on its secular credentials and that it has served the country well during its administration. Both are perceived as valid claims, even if its approach to secularism is to treat each religious group differently. And the fact is, the country has done well during the last five years and has weathered the economic downturn.

Rahul Gandhi played a very important role and really hit his stride. He energized the youth and a number of young Congress candidates featured in the news. The BJP on the other hand is shackled by its ideology (dogma) and its upholding of traditional values, one of them being; "Respect for Elders". Good value no doubt, but the elders should realize that their prime is past and ought to make way for the youth. The Congress has positioned Rahul as the successor to the Party Leadership. The BJP has announced no clear heir and the name Modi is mentioned. Another oldie!

The NREGA program is a big boon to the rural Uneducated, Unskilled and Unemployed. That sure must have brought in the Rural Vote. The BJP on the other hand harped on National Security and blowing smoke up the PM's behind, which back fired. It is one thing to take jibes at the PM at cocktail parties and informal gatherings. Things got personal and ugly.

Another factor that hurt the BJP is the emergence of Federalism: Coincident with this election is the establishment of Federalism and strong regional parties that are leading their respective State Governments and focused on their regional issues. Naveen Patnaik's dumping the BJP was a masterful stroke. This emergence of Fedralism represents a maturing of the people of the country. The States should wrest more power from the Center, with Members of Parliament focusing on National Issues like across the board consistency in commercial, legal and education policies, Defense, Foreign Policy, Fiscal/Monetary Policy etc. Right now Delhi grabs too much from the country and has taken the place of the British Crown. Getting funds is not a problem for Sheila Dixit. Efficient execution of programs is her challenge.

What remains to be seen is whether the UPA will work effectively with the non-UPA led states, like Bihar, Orissa, Gujarat, Karnataka etc. The "Duryodhana Complex" is endemic in India where one is not happy with what they have, they want what is not theirs, they are dissatisfied with their own success, and in order to look better, they will put down their opponents. Instead of running faster, and performing better, the focus is on coasting and bashing the opponents/competitors. The fact is that the States have power, they just need to assert it.

Interesting times ahead. Migration away from Vote Bank politics to Development: Rahul Gandhi in his infamous press conference cited Nitish Kumar (Bihar) and Naveen Patnaik (Orissa) as good examples of pro-development and secular leaders. We are a mini-Europe and we need to "devolve power" to the States. It is interesting to note, he could not cite (even if he wanted to) a single Congress Chief Minister that has done good for his/her State, with the exception of Sheila Dixit who leads a tiny "state". The reason cited by some, is that the Congress CM has to get approval from the "high command" on every decision he/she takes. Maharashtra for instance is cited as the worst performing Congress lead State. But the political mandate is clear. People want "Development" and "Jobs".

Based on recent events, with the expulsion of Jaswant Singh and side lining of other "thinking" individuals, the BJP has demonstrated a complete lack of "Intellectual capacity" and is portrating itself as a dogmatic party that pays more importance to "Moral Policing" than ascribe to the values that Vajpayee promoted.

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