While
technologists point to the advances in automation that will displace
many jobs that humans perform, economists are scratching their heads
and are not looking beyond the near future. Sociologists haven't a
clue other than forecasting an ominous future. Educators are noting
that we are moving towards an unstructured world and our current
education system is tailored to a factory oriented assembly line.
Technologists, economists, sociologists and educators focus on their
own silos of expertise and don't look at the complete picture.
Opinions are expressed in the context of the silos of each opinion
maker. Politicians are concerned about getting elected, responding to
the immediate needs of their constituents and responding to crisis.
There needs to be some thought given to what children born today will
encounter when they reach middle age and in their twilight years.
There are competing predictions. However there is no analysis that
ties it all together in a socioeconomic and political context.
The
companion article, “The
Rise of Automation” provides references to information that covers the State
of the Art in the beginning of the 21st
Century
and what experts see coming.
This
article takes a comprehensive view of the developments and forces at
play in looking at what the future could well turn out.
In
the beginning of the 22nd Century:
The
year 2100 has ushered a new era in the US. Automation has penetrated
every aspect of American life. Cars are self driven. So are trains,
buses and planes. Robots do the cooking and cleaning. Everything
conceivable that required human effort has been automated. Robots
even look after children and the invalid. The US continues to attract
the best and the brightest of the world. Innovation has taken center
stage. Only the most sophisticated, delicate and intricate tasks need
to be performed by humans. That too is a rarity. It is an era of
plenty. Energy is plentiful; mostly safe renewable solar, wind and
nuclear energy. Even defense is highly automated, consisting of
missiles, jet fighters that fly by themselves, drones and
micro-drones. These micro-drones can seek and incapacitate an
individual by stinging them with a powerful sedative or kill them
with a lethal injection. Hunger and poverty have been banished. There
is no shortage of essential goods and creature comforts.
Technological breakthroughs in energy, automation in manufacturing,
construction, farming etc. have brought the cost of goods and
services down significantly and it has become economical and viable
to just give everyone their basic necessities along with robots to
serve them. Everyone is given Monthly Basic Credits (MBCs) –
Housing Credits, Food Credits and Discretionary Credits. Education
and Healthcare are free. People can earn more Credits in a variety of
ways, reminiscent of jobs as defined in the 21st Century, to afford
more. Inflation is virtually non-existent since everything is indexed
to the Credits. A commodity costs the same number of Credits
regardless. Money has ceased to be important and the notion of
banking and investing has been disbanded which precipitated the
demise of Wall Street. Wall Street that held sway until the mid 21st
Century exists only in name. There is peace and happiness. It took
significant changes and cataclysmic shifts to get to this situation.
Even with a few detractors, the majority agree that the solution
achieved is as close to Utopia as one can get.
The
path to the Age of Leisure:
In
the early 21st Century, the US consisted of:
Makers,
who added “real” value to the economy
Takers,
who lived of entitlements and subsidies
With
the advent of automation, more and more people were forced out of
work. The Taker population comprised of not only habitual Takers, but
others forced into this predicament due to the unavailability of jobs
or their inability to function as a Maker in the highly specialized
environment. As more and more automation set in, even the service
economy was affected and service jobs like gardening, burger flipping
etc. got automated. This created a major rift between the Haves and
the Have Nots. The country had a dwindling set of Makers, Servers
(Service Providers) and an expanding population of Takers.
Food
Stamps to the Rescue:
To
counter the trend of increasing poverty, the Food Stamp Program and
Unemployment Benefits were expanded. Providing and extending these
entitlements were heavily fought over by fiscal conservatives. They
had a point. Money spent on entitlements did nothing to solve the
problem. Government and the poor had one thing in common. Both lived
beyond their means and spent more than they had. Furthermore, money
poured at the bottom and near bottom of the pyramid bubbled up to the
top and the income gap widened. The government could not cope with
rising unemployment. The consumer market collapsed and this set a
downward spiral in the price of produce and manufactured goods.
Massive deflation set in. The country got thrown into deep
depression. The entire Farm to Fork chain had been automated and the
bottom fell out in the agriculture economy. With falling prices,
farmers defaulted on their loans and instead of giving farmers
subsidies, the Thinkers in government suggested that the government
take over farms. With the ever expanding Food Stamp program, it made
eminent sense for the government to own agriculture. Many farmers
opted out and surrendered to the government. With government owning a
significant portion of food production, a Food Stamp Economy emerged,
wherein Food Stamps were involved in most transactions pertaining to
produce and processed food. The monetary relief on the government was
significant. The Food Stamp program became a success. Hunger and
malnutrition was eliminated. Farmers benefited too, many migrated to
cities and became Takers. The ones that stayed back approached
farming as a hobby. Many city dwellers moved to rural America and
chose the simple rural life of being close to nature and mother
earth. The back to nature form of living gained popularity. But the
situation in cities deteriorated. Homelessness was on the rise to
unprecedented levels. The country was driven to the brink of disaster
by uncontrollable law and order. Prisons were over flowing and the
government started building more prisons to accommodate the
increasing population of criminals.
Enter
Housing Credits:
While
the situation got worse; on the verge of reaching a tipping point of
anarchy, the Thinkers in government citing the success of the Food
Stamp program recommended applying this principle to Housing and just
give minimum housing to Takers. The rationale was instead of building
more prisons, why not build housing. Food was already taken care of
and housing will take care of giving people a roof over their heads.
And so along with Food Stamps, the government started issuing Housing
Credits. This brought about significant relief to the situation and
more Monetary relief.
The
Collapse of Commodity Prices:
Extensive
recycling and reuse resulted in judicious use of non-renewable
resources. This extended the availability of non-renewable resources
for the 22nd Century and beyond. The drop in demand cratered the
prices of raw material. Mining, refining, transportation,
manufacturing, delivering was automated with minimal human
intervention. Technological breakthroughs in energy, automation in
manufacturing, construction, etc. brought the cost of goods and
services down even further. With the collapse of prices and
subsequent defaults, the Thinkers in the government recommended take
over of mines and oil fields. Fossil fuels were yesterday’s energy
source and demand for it evaporated. With that the debate on climate
change was put to bed. The cost of goods dropped to such an
insignificant level that it became economical and viable to just give
the Takers the essentials that they needed along with robots to serve
them as well to enjoy a comfortable Quality of Life of Leisure, since
energy was cheap and everything was automated.
The
New US:
The
US became completely self sufficient. Trading with other countries
decreased to a negligible level. The world was forced to survive
without relying on the US economy. Europe and the BRICS countries
picked up the slack. In the past the US was accused of being a war
monger, involved in an expansionist foreign policy. The rhetoric
shifted and the rest of the world began accusing the US of being an
isolationist. China that once copied US innovations indiscriminately
started crying fowl since Chinese innovations were being replicated
in the US. The Dollar continued to be an International Currency, but
most of the Dollars circulated overseas since the US found little use
for it. A Dollar to US Credit exchange emerged. This was utilized by
tourists visiting the US, by US citizens wishing to travel abroad and
for existing trade to acquire Rare Earths and the like. The entire
Product Cycle from Supply Chain, Manufacturing and Distribution being
automated required very little human intervention. The new order was
not Capitalism, Socialism or Communism. Scholars wrestled with what
to call it. Branding this socioeconomic order as an “ism” was
rejected. That debate still goes on.
The
Passage of Fundamental Rights:
The
Thinkers in government then went about proposing a set of Fundamental
Rights (re-branded entitlements) that were passed by Congress. Basic
food and housing were institutionalized as the Right to Food and
Right to Housing. To this was added Right to Education; which was
essentially free and dispensed through Massive Open On-line Courses
(MOOCs), and the Right to Health Care; which was also highly
automated and given free. The much fought over and maligned
Affordable Care Act that came into existence in 2014 was re-branded
as Right to Health and made Universal.
Cradle
to Grave Security:
With
cradle to grave support provided for by the government, there was no
need for 20th
Century entitlement programs - Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid,
Disability, Welfare were all eliminated. With the basic set of Rights
established, all forms of Subsidies and Entitlements were eliminated.
Everyone was entitled to these Rights and in order to avail of these
Rights a set of Responsibilities were established to maintain social
balance and harmony. This provided more Monetary relief to the
government. A new category of people emerged; Servers, who served
Makers; Servers who served affluent Makers, Makers who preferred to
be served by humans rather than robots.
Credits
Replace Currency:
In
implementing these fundamental rights the government established a
new currency of exchange called Credits. Since Food Stamps and
Housing Credits were already in place, all of this were rolled into a
Basic Credit System of Food Credits, Housing Credits, and
Discretionary Credits. These were commonly called FC, HC and DC.
Discretionary Credits could be applied to anything. Education and
Healthcare did not require any Credits. Takers were able to live
within the Basic Credits they were given. The income inequality that
widened in first part of the 21st Century vanished. Makers earned
more Credits by virtue of their occupation and contribution to
society, much like the 21st Century, which allowed them to live a
more “affluent” life style. Makers had choice regarding housing.
They could upgrade their housing by applying Discretionary Credits or
chose to live a simple lifestyle on their entitled Housing Credits.
They could use their Discretionary Credits (entitled and earned) for
whatever they chose. Inheritance rights were preserved. People, who
inherited property, turned in their unused Housing Credits. The
Commercial and Rental Real Estate market collapsed with dwindling
demand. It became the property of the government by default. A small
demand for Servers emerged created by Makers who wished to be served
by Humans. The oldest profession continued to exist. Servers got paid
for services provided.
A
Focus on Quality of Life:
To
enhance the Quality of Life, the Thinkers in government, promoted the
idea of Entertainment Centers called Forever Lands, much like Las
Vegas and Disney Land in each and every City and Town. People could
utilize their Discretionary Credits to access the recreational
facilities provided. Gambling was curtailed, in that when a person
exhausted their Discretionary Credits, they had to quit and wait till
they got their next allotment or earned more DCs. Many activities
were free; others were purchased with Discretionary Credits. Many
tournaments, games enabled people to earn Discretionary Credits that
they could use for special privileges like golfing, horse back
riding, fishing etc. There were many avenues like volunteering,
taking courses etc. to earn DCs and that could be used to acquire
things to satisfy human vanity, such as human made items or works of
art. While Forever Lands were accessible to everyone, exclusive
Country Clubs were set up as well that required significant DCs to
access. These were the places frequented by affluent Makers. What
resulted was a true meritocracy wherein competence and creating value
earned more DCs. The more one earned the more they could afford,
while no one was denied their Basic Rights. There were other things
established to ensure Quality of Life. For instance by using
Discretionary Credits, people were able to take vacations. A Time
Share like system allowed individuals and families to select the type
of vacation they wished to have. Airfare, ground transportation and
lodging required Discretionary Credits. Food Credits covered Food.
The more Discretionary Credits a person possessed the more they could
afford, like upgrades to a more luxurious vacation. An exchange
facility was established whereby a person, couple or family living in
one location could exchange places with their equivalent in another
location. This flexibility was popular among Takers. Takers with
young children could move around as and when they wished provided
they were able to find an exchange opportunity. Another phenomena
that emerged is that some Takers excelled in creativity and every
once in awhile an art form or innovation would emerge and achieve
some recognition. This earned them more Discretionary Credits. It was
not uncommon for a Maker to transition into a Taker and then
re-emerge as a Maker.
Inflation
and Deflation Eliminated:
Goods
and Services were pegged to Credits and their cost in Credits
remained the same. For instance a Pound of Salt; the very basic
essential was pegged at One Food Credit. The price of all food items
was derived in relation to a Pound of Salt. Each individual was given
one Housing Credit per month. A family of four was entitled to a four
bedroom apartment. With this system of Credits, inflation or
deflation was completely eliminated.
The
Demise of Wall Street:
With
the establishment of Credits which was a virtual currency; with
inflation/deflation beaten, the notion of banking and investing was
disbanded which led to the demise of Wall Street. Makers consisted
primarily of Innovators, Entrepreneurs, Entertainers, Artists,
Educators, Lawyers, Doctors, etc. which earned them Discretionary
Credits. The demand for Bankers, Brokers, Investment Counselors, and
Economists dropped, except for a few in the government to deal with
International Trade, which was minimal.
Democracy
Turned on its Head:
Centralized
democracy as practiced till the late 21st Century was disbanded. The
country transitioned itself into self governance. District lines were
drawn to contain approximately one million adults. Each district was
represented by a Mayor and his/her Council Members. Each Council
member had a specific area of oversight such as; Human Rights,
Commerce, Law, Education, Environment, Agriculture, Health, Safety,
Code of Conduct, Quality of Life etc. Council members were elected by
citizens from a pool of experts. The elected local representatives
consisting of Mayor and Council Members gained more power over
national issues through a Council System. Council Members met
regularly with their counterparts through teleconferencing. Changes
to existing rules and regulations were ratified at Quarterly National
Conferences. The President became like the King/Queen of England, a
nominal head. Debate by citizens was encouraged and dissension
tolerated. Places called Rebel Worlds and Opinion Worlds were set up
where people could voice their opinions, suggestions and complaints.
Issues had to be backed by facts. People were warned when making wild
allegations, which had to be retracted or face litigation. Legitimate
issues resulted in petitions that were debated and voted upon, then
taken up by the Mayor and the Council Member to be ratified. If the
resolution had a multi-district or national implication, it was taken
up at the appropriate Council Meeting to be ratified at the
appropriate level. Changes proposed at the Council Meeting were sent
back to the people for debate and discussion and voted upon again.
These petitions were at times debated for months and years and went
through many cycles of voting before being agreed upon. All proposals
and resolutions had to pass the Fairness Principle.
The
Fairness Principle: The
Fairness Principle was guided by the following:
Do
unto others as you would have them do unto you.
The
needs of the many outweigh the needs of a few.
Equality
of Rights extended to every human.
Minority
Rights had to be protected, no matter how small the Minority.
Equal
opportunity for all did not mean everyone was equal.
Additional
privileges were awarded in proportion to Merit. The establishment of
Fundamental Rights was accompanied by a System of Responsibilities.
For instance, even though the population was falling, preventive
measures to ensure a healthy population and prevent teenage
pregnancies were introduced. This involved all girls of child bearing
age to have a “reversible” birth control procedure. Approval was
required of single women and couples wishing to bear children, which
included a course on parenting and passing of tests. One of the tests
that had to be taken was DNA analysis. This was a contentious issue
but the law was passed nevertheless after much debate. By analyzing
and matching the DNA, it was possible to determine the physical and
mental characteristics of the baby. Draconian as this may sound, it
actually worked very well once instituted. Women were given the
choice of either artificial insemination or fertilized implants to
ensure a healthy baby. This DNA analysis suited single women who
wished to have children. Women were permitted to have only two
children after which they had to undergo the reversible “birth
control” procedure. The “two children law” was fiercely
contested by conservatives. So an amendment was introduced whereby,
couples/individuals wishing to have more than two children had to
qualify and obtain permission. After much debate and wrangling a
quantifiable set of qualifiers was agreed upon. To monitor and
address obesity children had an embedded capsule in their body that
broadcasted their vital signs. This capsule served as an embedded
health monitor that notified health services if any intervention was
required. The benefit of this was that the children grew up to live a
long and healthy life. Broadcasting a person’s position was another
feature which enabled monitoring of children. This monitoring, even
after an individual reached adulthood, became a contentious issue.
The ACLU fought this vigorously, but had to rescind because of its
inherent medical benefits. Broadcasting the person’s location
enabled delivery of emergency services.
The
Leisure Reality of the 22nd Century:
The
age old saying, “An idle mind is a devil’s workshop,” is an
axiom that transcends generations and holds true for the human race.
Kids will be kids, they challenge authority and some get into
trouble. For many years a group of educationalists critiqued the
“assembly line” education system that was devised for the
industrial age and prepared graduates for “structured” work in a
“structured” environment. Factories requiring organized human
labour ceased to exist long ago. Working on innovation involves a
significant amount of flexibility and self direction. The criticism
of these educationalists came home to roost in this new era. A child
could grow up and chose not to seek a “job”, and would have to
have the tools to keep preoccupied and out of trouble. The emphasis
of education was reoriented to prepare children for this unstructured
society by instilling civic responsibility and discipline. Schools
taught children to think independently, work in groups to solve
problems with adequate assistance and minimal supervision. Habitual
offenders were assigned to boot camps to remedy their behaviour. As a
result, the criminal population declined and included only the
“hopeless” cases.
Towards
a new World order:
The
tumultuous period the US went through while automation displaced
humans, was decried by the rest of the world as the end of
Capitalism. On the one hand, the GDP increased rapidly, the US became
a net exporter of goods and food grains, and the trade deficit was
wiped out. And yet the plight of people deteriorated. The US economic
indicators looked good but people’s lives were being decimated, the
rest of the world was not faring better, except that both the
economic indicators and the Quality of Life was deteriorating. It was
then that the US realized that the economic principles in vogue were
irrelevant and that a rapid transition to a new world order was the
solution. The emergence of the US from its predicament reinstated its
position of world leader and the beacon for other countries to
follow. With plenty to give and nothing to want, US took an active
role in aiding the rest of the world and replicate its success. As
more and more countries adopted the US way, people freely moved
between these countries.
A
path to a new world order emerged where borders were soon to become
meaningless and the term; “citizenship” would become a term of
association as opposed to a term of privilege or rights. The world
started looking more and more like it does from space; a Blue Marble
with people living in harmony and peace.
