What is India's Energy Strategy?

Summary:

Demand for Energy, Food, Water, consumer goods and services will continue to increase in India due to the following factors:

• Existing consumers consuming more
• Population increase
• More and more people being lifted out of poverty

This paper’s focus is on energy defined as electricity, fuel for vehicles, cooking, heating etc. Besides Air and Water; Energy is the most essential commodity for the survival and progress of the human race. The conclusion reached at the end of this analysis is that for India (and for that matter the world), the “holy grail” is in an inexhaustible source of affordable renewable energy. It is hoped that Innovation will provide that, and in all likelihood it will be in some form of Nuclear Energy.

Furthermore India has to move ahead with a sense of urgency and develop all means of affordable, reliable, sustainable energy that manages and minimizes environmental impact.

The Vision:

But before we dive in to solutions, let's define the Vision:

-          Abundance of electricity, fuel for vehicles, cooking, heating etc.

-          Affordable

-          Zero pollution

-          Minimized environmental impact

-          Reduced CO2 emission. 

Documented studies show that even with more efficient energy solutions that reduce consumption; net demand will continue to increase.

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=12251

Sources of Energy – Electricity, Fuel etc.:

-            Solar meets the above criteria but requires terrestrial space and available only during the day. There are systems being developed that convert solar energy into heat and/or potential by day, to be available at night.

-            Wind has to be in regions where there is year round adequate wind.

-            Hydro power does meet the criteria but is shrouded in controversies over environmental impact. Although mini/micro generator that just use the flow of water is a solution.

-            Tide energy - being developed in Maine, USA. There are environmental impacts

-            Coal, Gas, Diesel generation are non-renewable and don't meet the spirit of the Vision. Carbon sequestration is a solution to nullify CO2 emission. With cheap Gas, Coal fired power plants are becoming commercially unviable.

-            Agro – Ethanol, etc. which requires energy to produce

-            Cow Dung, Bio Mass, Garbage - the impact of “Bio Energy” to zero pollution and CO2 emission can be minimized.

-            Hydrogen  - this requires energy to produce

-            Nuclear has its share of controversy.

-            Wood is used extensively in Rural India and small towns for cooking and heating water. This has a major environmental impact and has to be addressed.

India has gas reserves, but it has to be tapped and there is an increase in cost factor to be considered:

http://www.thehindu.com/business/Industry/higher-rates-will-help-increase-domestic-gas-output-moily/article5482544.ece

Urban, Rural and Industrial requirements:

The energy consumption profile is different for Urban, Rural areas and Industry. 

-            Rural needs could be addressed by Solar, Wind, Gas, Kerosene, bio energy etc. 

-            Urban needs will require power plants. Solar utilization will help, but unlikely to suffice.

-            The Industrial sector continues to account for the largest share of delivered energy consumption and is projected to consume more than half of global delivered energy in 2040. (Refer to web site cited above).

Transportation Requirements:

The energy needs for transportation can be categorized as: 

-            SUVs, Cars – Small, Medium and multi-passenger vehicles

-            Goods - Shipping and Trucking

-            Mass Transportation – Air, Buses, Trains & Ships.

The  battle for resources.

With the increased pace of development, with more and more automation, the battle of the future is going to be control of or access via trade for:

-            Food,

-            Natural Resources – inclusive of Energy requirements

-            Water

What should India do?

With regards to energy, India has to:

• Reduce its dependence on importing oil by developing and implementing alternative means or finding fossil fuel sources within or
• Supplant the energy needs derived from non-fossil means or
• Earn enough foreign exchange and continue to import to fill the energy gap

Unless there is an alternative that does not include Nuclear power, Nuclear Energy is an option that India has to pursue.

India is blessed with an abundance of Thorium. Utilizing Thorium can achieve an inexhaustible source of power. It needs more research and development to become viable. Along with existing nuclear power, the addition of Thorium based power would alleviate India’s electricity needs.

Energy for Transportation:

Affordable Electric Cars that can travel 400 Km before requiring a charge (that would take less than hour), like the Tesla does today, would take care of most of the passenger car needs.

The energy requirements for heavy vehicles are different and this is where Hydrogen based power might provide the solution. Generating Hydrogen requires electricity unless there is a non-electric Hydrogen production breakthrough. If we had an abundance of electricity, the electric based Hydrogen production option is a viable solution.

Pricing of Electricity:

Price controls and subsidies are a major deterrent for private parties to enter into the Power Sector. India’s policies should be aimed at serving the Poor, the Rich and everyone in between. This can be done by establishing a Linear Pricing scheme as opposed to a Tiered Pricing scheme that tops off at a point, allowing the consumer to consume as much power they need without an increase in price for additional units consumed. With a Linear Pricing Model, the basic units of Electricity could be given free to everyone, with the price for every additional set of units increasing as consumption increases. This model implements a “cross subsidy” scheme where high consumers pay more as they use more and this subsidizes the low consumers. India’s model for essentials like water, electricity can be priced such that the bare minimum is made available at a low price and consumers pay more for more and a lot more for a lot more. People can decide how much they want to consume based on what they pay at their consumption level.

The Nuclear Controversy:

The opposition to Nuclear Energy is primarily due to emotion, irrationality and misinformation about the facts. Disasters, environmental impact and storage of nuclear waste are cited objection. These are valid objections and can be mitigated with proper implementation and processes.

For instance, the disaster at Fukushima could have been averted if they had a reliable source of power coming from a stable area.

http://www.spf.org/jpus/img/investigation/book_fukushima.pdf

Three Mile Island was due to multiple failures that included human error.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Mile_Island_accident

In the case of Chernobyl it was an experiment to prevent a disaster that went horribly wrong and resulted in the very disaster it was intended to prevent.

http://chemwiki.ucdavis.edu/Physical_Chemistry/Nuclear_Chemistry/Case_Studies/Chernobyl

More people are dying due to starvation, illness and traffic related deaths and people are worried about nuclear power!

India operates Nineteen nuclear power reactors at six sites by the Nuclear Power Corporation of India that produce 4,560.00 MW, 2.9% of total installed base. There has not been a single reported incident of the type of catastrophe people are alarmed about.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_India

More than Forty years ago Dr. Homi Bhabha articulated a Three Stage Nuclear program that India has yet to realize. People opposed to Nuclear energy are advised to talk to knowledgeable scientists of the Bhabha Atomic Research Center (BARC) before voicing their opinion.

Conclusion:

India must move with a sense of urgency and pursue all forms of reliable, reasonable, affordable and sustainable energy that manages and minimizes environmental impact

Utilizing Hydrogen for heavy vehicles is an option worth exploring.

Nuclear powered Ships and submarines exist today and it could well become a reality for commercial vessels.

Save for the Thorium based reactor, the technology is available to augment India’s energy needs. In the absence of a Thorium based solution, existing nuclear technology can be pursued to provide energy. India has a vast coast line and a plant per 200Km of the West Coast can be built. The East Coast north of Tamil Nadu is vulnerable to inclement weather.

What remains is political will, overcoming naysayers and capital. Capital is the least of India's hurdles. What can work is a PPP model wherein the capital comes from private sources and BOTH government and private parties are involved in the construction AND operation.